31 August Hurricane Harvey Brings Out the Best and the Worst in People August 31, 2017By Jon Coss - Blog Manager emerging fraud methods, General Fraud, Hurricane Harvey, Looting, Price Gouging, Texas 0 As the residents of Houston and surrounding areas continue to struggle with the devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey, history shows us that problems will continue long after the homes and businesses have been repaired. Every large natural disaster in this country follows the same pattern: destruction brought on by the disaster, followed by looting and price gouging, followed by huge amounts of fraud committed in the chase for assistance money.In Texas, all three seem to be occurring at once. We’ve all seen the heartbreaking images and videos of families who have lost everything, unfortunately including those who lost their lives. We’ve also seen the inspiring stories of ordinary people that risk their lives to help a neighbor, a stranger, or a lost family pet.Now, of course, the looting stories are beginning to circulate. In this case, it appears that law enforcement is doing all that it can to protect life and property, including announcing mandatory jail time for all thieves and burglars. However, the scammers are wasting no time setting up Facebook pages and sending out tweets with links to “relief organizations” that are actually designed to steal money from those who want to help.I have no doubt that this fraud activity will only increase. Consider these examples following previous disasters:- Dozens of people were convicted of using fraudulent psychiatric claims following 9/11 to steal up to $50,000 per year in Social Security disability payments.- A New Jersey man was one of hundreds to receive relief funding (in his case $171,099) after falsely claiming his primary residence was a home damaged by Hurricane Sandy.- An Alabama woman filed 28 claims for disaster assistance in 5 states following Hurricane Katrina.Unfortunately, fraud thrives at the intersection of vulnerable populations and large amounts of money. And Hurricane Harvey creates this intersection by displacing so many families, by invoking a government response, and by tapping into the giving spirit of caring Americans.Even more unfortunate is the fact that most of the fraud will go undetected and unprosecuted. Consider that the vast majority of the 22,000 cases of potential fraud passed to the government's Katrina task force were never prosecuted. And it is likely that FEMA collected less than 5% of the estimated billion dollars of fraud following the Hurricane. Only by increased enforcement and stricter sentencing will we be able to break this heinous pattern. And, to me at least, this is a pattern worth breaking. Related Posts Analytics are more than Numbers and Stats – It’s About People by Tammy Marple, VP - Special Investigations Unit During my time as a fraud analyst, I realized that my work was so much more than just numbers and statistics. I worked in State Government for many years and a few years ago, my manager asked me to conduct a study on Opioids. I lived that assignment for 18 months.After the Opioid study was completed, I traveled the state and shared what I had learned with our regulatory and law enforcement partners. That assignment really stuck with me. The overall impact of the Opioid epidemic on healthcare costs, society, and the family unit is devastating. It is a sad truth when we can say “everyone knows someone addicted to these types of drugs,” regardless of how they got there. An even worse reality is the impact on the family as a whole: newborn babies born addicted to drugs, children being raised by their grandparents or in foster care because the parents are either dead or in jail as a result of their addiction and drug diversion activities, and families living with the daily possibility of overdose.One of the most eye-opening documentaries regarding this epidemic was created by Vanguard and is titled “The OxyContin Express.” Although the video is many years old, the story it tells is still very real today and it is no longer just a Florida issue. I often suggest that our interns and new employees in Pondera’s Special Investigations Unit watch the video. It explains drug diversion schemes from drug seeking patients to the cash operations of those that prescribe the drugs, as well as the overall human element. It’s been years since I conducted the study on Opioids, and yet Opioid abuse is still on the rise and growing fast with the introduction of illicitly manufactured fentanyl.An in-depth analysis conducted in 2016 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), stated that drug overdose deaths were spreading not only geographically but also across demographic groups. Listed below are some of the stats from the CDC analysis:• Drug overdoses killed 63,632 Americans in 2016.• Nearly two-thirds of these deaths (66%) involved a prescription or illicit opioid.• Overdose deaths increased in all categories of drugs examined for men and women, people ages 15 and older, all races and ethnicities, and across all levels of urbanization.• CDC’s new analysis confirms that recent increases in drug overdose deaths are driven by continued sharp increases in deaths involving synthetic opioids other than methadone, such as illicitly manufactured fentanyl (IMF).Pondera’s technology can identify these areas of risk in a variety of programs. This is the reason behind what we do to make a difference and potentially effect change for the better. Certainly, our goal is to detect fraud, waste, and abuse in government programs, but it really does come down to people. Sure, technology is always a cool thought when it comes to smart phones, cars that drive themselves, video games, and other advancements, but technology can also be used to detect certain behaviors within large data sets and identify highly suspect activities, patterns, or hot spots of concern. Pondera leverages technology to identify suspect activity and protect vulnerable populations within a program to make a significant difference, not only from a government budget point of view but also in the lives of our fellow citizens.Cited SourcesVan Zeller, Mariana. “The OxyContin Express.” YouTube, Current TV - Vanguard, 19 October 2009, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGZEvXNqzkMResearchers for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). “U.S. Drug Overdose Deaths Continue to Rise; Increase Fueled by Synthetic Opioids.” www.cdc.gov, 29 March 2018, https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2018/p0329-drug-overdose-deaths.html Money Obtained Fraudulently is Rarely Used for Good Purposes People often ask me if I think we can make a difference fighting fraud by stopping down-on-their-luck Americans from grabbing a few extra bucks that they are not entitled to from government programs. In fact, many people ask if it’s even the right thing to do. After all, they explain, wouldn’t anyone do the same given the circumstances? This illustrates the common misperception that fraud is only perpetrated in small amounts by desperate people who are temporarily bending the rules. In fact, much of what we see takes place on a larger scale. And more importantly, the truth is that money obtained fraudulently is rarely used for good purposes. Examples include:During a “National Counter Terrorism-Awareness Week” in 2014, government officials explained that taxpayer money was being defrauded out of government programs (including student loans) to fund terrorism. In effect, we are helping to fund groups that want to do us harm. The Wall Street Journal reported on, in March 2016, the growing trend of street gangs funding activities through fraud. Fraud offers attractive forms of theft because “they are more lucrative, harder to detect and carry lighter prison sentences”. Considering that the government distributes over two trillion dollars per year in subsidies, and considering how fraudulently obtained money can be used, it is critical that we address the issue of fraud, waste, and abuse. So to answer the questions posed earlier: Yes, I do believe we are doing the right thing, and Yes, I do believe we can make a difference. The Most Important System Feature I believe that simple things can make a big difference. This week, for example, I went through self-checkout at a local grocery store and the keypad gave me the options of “debit card” or “all other tenders” to complete my transaction. “All other tenders”—who talks like that? No doubt there was a group of people that decided that, technically, “tenders” was the best word to cover all the other options. It doesn’t really matter that it makes the system more confusing. That’s my problem.Software systems suffer from this problem perhaps more than any other consumer product. I remember the old joke about having to go to the “start” button to stop the computer. This still happens, despite the fact that experience has shown us that the single most important feature contributing to the success of software is usability.Put simply, even the most powerful system is completely worthless if people can’t figure out how to use it. My own brother discovered this when he recently decided to switch from the iPhone to an Android phone for the additional capabilities. Not a very technical person, he quickly switched back complaining that he was utterly confused by the “full fledged computer” he was carrying around in his pocket.At Pondera, we make the claim that our system is “built by investigators, for investigators.” And it’s true. Our most important design principle is to “mask” the underlying complexity of the system and provide analysts and investigators with an intuitive system that works the way they do. Technical people can’t do this. Data scientists can’t do this. Only investigators can do this. That’s why we hire them and task them with our most important work. Student Loan Fraud Anyone who has recently attended college or has a family member in college likely has some familiarity with student loans. In fact, 40 million Americans currently have student loans totaling an astounding $1.2 trillion dollars. Many of those who have applied for loans have been victimized by methods such as “advanced fee scams” that promise the best rate for an upfront service fee, or the ever-present loan elimination scams.With easy access to stolen identities, fraudsters are now targeting the more lucrative loans themselves. Using stolen IDs, they enroll in classes which they, of course, never attend. Loans are made by the government, payments are not, and the unsuspecting “owner” of the loan goes into default when the fraudsters don’t make their payments.In Grand Rapids, Michigan, a man was indicted last month for this exact scheme. He faces up to 20 years in prison for allegedly using stolen IDs to steal $150,000 in loans and grant aid. A quick check of the government’s paymentaccuracy.org website shows that he is not alone. Between the William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan Program and the Federal Pell Grant Program, $6.1 billion was improperly paid in 2016 alone. While many of the improper payments are made to people who simply do not qualify based on income, an increasing number of loans are being made to outright fraudsters. Some estimates place the number of known fraud ring participants as high as 85,000 people. This victimizes the taxpayer, of course, but even more directly the person whose identity is stolen. It can take months or even years to clean up your credit. That’s one lesson I hope I never need to learn. Pondera’s Modified Bucket Theory I once worked for a manager that operated under what he called his “Bucket Theory”. His theory went like this: hire successful people, throw them in a “bucket”, and see who can climb their way out. Those that did, he explained, were the type that could succeed at this particular tech company. Those that couldn’t climb out were soon shown the exit. Pretty Spartan of him.When I founded Pondera, I thought it might be interesting to make modified use of the “Bucket Theory”. Here’s how my theory goes: hire skilled and dedicated people with diverse backgrounds and experiences, broadly define the problem that needs to be solved, then throw them in a “bucket” and ask them to come up with a solution for the problem. The only guidelines: treat each other with respect, expect mistakes, share in success, and “think outside the bucket”.Turns out that this modified bucket theory works pretty well. I’m constantly amazed by the innovations made by Pondera’s employees. And walking around the office, it’s not unusual to see a former FBI agent working with a PHD in Learning and Mind Sciences, an Unemployment Insurance investigator collaborating with the former founder of a Silicon Valley drone company, or a data scientist talking with a Certified Fraud Examiner.Since founding Pondera, I’ve read a number of articles about the importance of hiring staff from “adjacent” markets. For example, one article detailed how some skateboarders were able to help improve construction site safety equipment. And I think we’ve all seen images of football players in training sessions with ballet instructors. I imagine that the conversations between these two groups were equally as entertaining as the ones among Pondera’s employees.So why don’t more companies take this approach? I think there are two main reasons for this. First, many companies start with or develop the belief (sometimes arrogance) that their way is the only way. Like the proverbial hammer, they subsequently see every problem like a nail. The second reason: it can be very difficult to maintain a healthy company culture across such varied career experiences. Success depends on a clear and transparent vision combined with world class human beings. I personally feel very fortunate to work side-by-side with such people in the Pondera Bucket. The False Positive Problem Last year, 60 Minutes did a segment on the impact of errors in the Social Security Administration’s Master Death File—a database that stores dates of death for Americans. The system stores 86 million records, and despite all best efforts, it still has some issues.60 Minutes pointed out that errors in the system contribute to millions of dollars in improper payments each year. After all, the system would seem to indicate over 6.5 million Americans over the age of 111 when, in fact, there are probably fewer than 100. On the other hand, false positives where people find themselves mistakenly placed on the list, lead to nightmarish scenarios for obtaining loans, opening bank accounts, and other everyday tasks.This story demonstrates one of the largest challenges for government agencies: how to use imperfect data sources to minimize fraud, waste, and abuse while also not “harassing” legitimate people and businesses. And unlike a private business that may view a false positive as an inconvenience (who hasn’t had to call their credit card company to say that “yes, that large ice cream purchase was legitimate”), government officials are severely criticized when they act on false positives. In effect, they are criticized for not acting and they are criticized for acting.Pondera suggests that governments mitigate the effects of false positives by using composite indicators that draw information from multiple sources—both simple data matches like the Master Death File and more complex behavioral sources. For example, a Medicaid investigator would feel much more confident looking into a person who not only shows up on the Master Death File, but also appears to be traveling 100 miles for 20-minute doctor appointments, receives highly unusual (and expensive) procedures for their apparent diagnosis, and often sees two doctors in distant cities on the same day.Anyone who has worked for or with government program integrity units understands the unique pressures they face. Combining available data sources with intelligent analytics can go a long way toward helping them investigate the right cases while not interfering with program delivery. Comment (0) Comments are closed.