19 December New Drug Overdose Death Statistics December 19, 2016By Jon Coss - Blog Manager General CDC 0 A common topic on Pondera’s blog is the seemingly endless acceleration in the number of drug overdose deaths. And based on recently released data from the CDC, this will likely be a topic into the future as well. In fact, the CDC points out that drug overdose deaths nearly tripled between 1999 and 2014, and increased an additional 11.4% last year to 47,055.Of particular concern to Pondera is the growth in opioid-related addictions which now account for 63% of drug overdose deaths. Opioids include heroin, prescription drugs like oxycodone and hydrocodone, and synthetic opioids like fentanyl. Each of these drugs, some legal, others illegal, can offer a similar high to those who use them without medical supervision. This is why you read stories of users who “graduate” from prescription medications to heroin when the prescription is no longer available or affordable to them.Another tragic consequence of opioid abuse is the growing number of babies born with drug withdrawal systems. This problem is especially prevalent in rural areas of the country where 7 out of every 1,000 babies enter the world with drug withdrawals. This represents a 700% increase over the past decade.So now that we agree that this is problem, what can we do about it? In my opinion, we can stem this dangerous tide through increased media coverage, more patient and doctor education, the use of less harmful drugs, and technology to track abuses. As patients, it is important to ask questions of your doctor, to safeguard pills at home, and to dispose of them safely. And as citizens, it is important to demand education for medical professionals and the use of technology to track illegal “pill mills” and imports from other countries.It’s clear that curbing opioid abuse is going to require a difficult and sustained fight. However, I’m confident that by working together, we can make a difference. Related Posts Drugged Driving As a resident of California, I took personal interest in a recent bill introduced to the legislature that would create a drugged driving task force and the use of oral swabs to help identify drivers under the influence of drugs. Californians, after all, approved the use of recreational marijuana in last November’s elections.This bill follows a recent study showing that drugged driving deaths have now passed drunk driving deaths, with a whopping 43% of fatalities in 2015 showing the use of a legal or illegal drug. This all makes me wonder just how lawmakers, law enforcement, and the courts are going to handle field sobriety tests in the future. After all, the cheek swab test used to test for cannabis cannot test for alcohol and many other drugs. And we’ve written on this blog many times about the dangers of and rise in the use of opioids. With all these “choices”, it appears that officers may need to administer multiple tests (alcohol, opioids, cannabis, etc.) to identify potential influences affecting a driver.While it would be nice to think that drivers would act responsibly, history shows us this is not the case. In Colorado, for example, CDOT conducted a study that revealed that 55% of marijuana users believed it was safe to drive under the influence of marijuana. And the number of fatalities with active THC has increased 250% from 2013 – 2015. While I know that this doesn’t necessarily prove causation, to me at least, it certainly provides reasons for concern. The False Positive Problem Last year, 60 Minutes did a segment on the impact of errors in the Social Security Administration’s Master Death File—a database that stores dates of death for Americans. The system stores 86 million records, and despite all best efforts, it still has some issues.60 Minutes pointed out that errors in the system contribute to millions of dollars in improper payments each year. After all, the system would seem to indicate over 6.5 million Americans over the age of 111 when, in fact, there are probably fewer than 100. On the other hand, false positives where people find themselves mistakenly placed on the list, lead to nightmarish scenarios for obtaining loans, opening bank accounts, and other everyday tasks.This story demonstrates one of the largest challenges for government agencies: how to use imperfect data sources to minimize fraud, waste, and abuse while also not “harassing” legitimate people and businesses. And unlike a private business that may view a false positive as an inconvenience (who hasn’t had to call their credit card company to say that “yes, that large ice cream purchase was legitimate”), government officials are severely criticized when they act on false positives. In effect, they are criticized for not acting and they are criticized for acting.Pondera suggests that governments mitigate the effects of false positives by using composite indicators that draw information from multiple sources—both simple data matches like the Master Death File and more complex behavioral sources. For example, a Medicaid investigator would feel much more confident looking into a person who not only shows up on the Master Death File, but also appears to be traveling 100 miles for 20-minute doctor appointments, receives highly unusual (and expensive) procedures for their apparent diagnosis, and often sees two doctors in distant cities on the same day.Anyone who has worked for or with government program integrity units understands the unique pressures they face. Combining available data sources with intelligent analytics can go a long way toward helping them investigate the right cases while not interfering with program delivery. A New Way to Rip Off the Taxpayer I often mention how “impressed” I am by the ingenuity of fraudsters and their ability to find new and creative ways to steal money. And now, with the country starting to pay attention to the opioid crisis, comes word of one of these fraud innovations. This time, fraud (and to be fair, often just massive waste) is found in the escalating number of urine tests being performed to detect opioids and other drugs in patients.Kaiser Health News, with help from the Mayo Clinic, found billing for urine screens and related tests quadrupled from 2011 to 2014 to $8.5 billion a year. The federal government paid providers more for drug urine screens than they paid for the four most common types of cancer screens combined. $8.5 billion is more than the annual budget of the Environmental Protection Agency!It’s easy to see how this could happen. In the cases of 50 less-than-scrupulous doctors who operate their own labs, Medicare paid over $1 million for drug tests at their pain management practices. 31 of these received over 80 percent of their Medicare payments from urine tests—in other words, less than 20 percent was for patient care!Other labs have hired sales team that employ high-pressure tactics, telling doctors to order more tests to lower patients’ risks and to protect their practices against law enforcement or medical licensing board investigations. One labs sales manager earned $700,000 in salary and commissions, and the company later had to pay $256 million to settle claims with the justice department.While some of the data in this blog post is over two years old, opioid prescriptions (and deaths) continue to climb—the latter at about 20 percent per year. Despite the government’s enforcement efforts, I assume that the urine test cash grab is also accelerating. It’s also safe to assume that when this scheme is shut down, the fraudsters will find another way to rip us off. Largest Health Care Fraud Bust in History Last week, the Department of Justice announced that they had made the largest “National Health Care Fraud Takedown” in history. In all, the DOJ brought charges against 412 people in 30 states responsible for $1.3 billion in false billings. Those charged included 115 doctors, nurses, and other licensed health care providers.Many of those busted included operators of clinics that were alleged to be illegally distributing prescription opioids—a subject that we address all too often in this blog. One Houston clinic simply sold the opioids to a room packed full of addicts and drug dealers. Another clinic in Palm Beach, FL recruited addicts by offering them drugs and visits to strip clubs. There were even cases of single doctors prescribing more medications than entire hospitals.In their press release, the DOJ points out that 59,000 Americans died last year from opioid related drug overdoses. Many of these were from prescription opioids. This is clearly a growing problem in our country and we applaud the DOJ, HHS, and law enforcement for their efforts in this takedown. This, and similar busts, should send a strong message to the bad actors in America’s health care system.It is important to note, however, that we still have a lot of work ahead of us. As large as these takedown numbers are, one must consider that they still represent only a small percentage of the problem. The government’s own Paymentaccuracy.gov website assigns $96 billion per year in overpayments for Medicare Fee-for-Service, Medicaid, Medicare Advantage (Part C), and the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit (Part D). So even if all of the $1.3 billion from this bust was falsely billed in one year (which it wasn’t), it would still represent only 1.35% of the total estimated problem.I, for one, am hoping that this is simply one of many steps in the right direction. The Dark Web, Illicit Sales, and Law Enforcement Efforts to Combat Illegal Markets While I don’t often review books on this blog, I feel compelled to share my thoughts on American Kingpin by Nick Bilton, which chronicles the history of the Silk Road. For those who don’t know, the Silk Road was a market on the dark web that sold drugs, weapons, poisons, and even human body parts. By the time it was shut down in 2013, the site was selling over $1 billion per year.The book offers fascinating insights into the dark web, the libertarian creator of the site, the investigators who worked to shut it down, and the political schisms that often make it possible to run sites like the Silk Road. And of course, the book has great relevance to the fraud detection business because fraudsters often acquire identities on the dark web to create fictitious businesses, file for tax refunds, and make fake unemployment insurance claims.While American Kingpin ended with the shutdown of the Silk Road and the prosecutions of the major actors behind the market, it is important to note that similar sites continue to operate on the dark web. In fact, just days after I finished reading the book, Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced that the FBI had shut down a similar site 10 times the size of the Silk Road. At the time this site was shut down last month, it contained 369,000 listings for drugs, weapons, malware, chemicals, counterfeit items, and more.This is a sobering reminder of the challenges facing law enforcement when dealing with anonymous browsers like TOR, the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, and international crime rings. The dark web is not going away. Neither is the demand for illicit items. It will be interesting to see how this “cat and mouse” games plays out over the coming years. What do Competitive Running and Fraud Detection Have in Common? I read with great interest the story this month about a woman who cheated her way to a second-place finish in the Fort Lauderdale half marathon. After posting a time of 1 hour and 21 minutes, the website www.marathoninvestigation.com revealed several problems with the woman’s results including: the race statistics she posted to a website were manually entered (versus those calculated by her GPS), a second set of results she posted seemed more consistent with a bike ride, and a zoomed photo of her post race wristwatch revealed that she ran only 11.65 miles of the 13.1 mile race. This evidence led to an admission and apology by the runner.What I find interesting about this incident is how indicative it is of the ever-increasing power of data. While runners collect data to help them train and perform better, it can also be used to uncover cheating and fraud. This is no different in government subsidy programs, like Medicaid and welfare systems. Governments collect data to help them improve service delivery to their constituents, and with modern technologies, the data can also reveal fraudulent anomalies and patterns.Of course, bad actors who want to defraud programs are aware of the increased use of data to catch them. Gone are the days when they can blatantly abuse government systems knowing that the size and complexity of the programs would make it nearly impossible to catch the cheats. In running, who would dare to repeat Rosie Ruiz’s 1980 Boston Marathon “victory” where she was spotted riding the subway with her runner’s bib? Instead, bad actors often “fly under the radar” – stealing smaller amounts over longer periods of time to avoid being noticed. Second place in the Fort Lauderdale Marathon is certainly “under the radar” compared to a victory in the Boston Marathon.So, now that our fraud detection capabilities can catch bad actors who boldly fly above the radar and those who strategically fly below the radar, one would hope that it would lead to decreases in fraud attempts. But I also know that making fraud harder to commit rarely turns fraudsters into honest and contributing members of society. It just makes them work harder. This simple fact provides us with the incentive to continually improve on our technologies and approaches. This is one war we fully intend to win. Comment (0) Comments are closed.