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Pondera FraudCast

Welcome to the Pondera FraudCast, a weekly blog where we post information on fraud trends, lessons learned from client engagements, and observations from our investigators in the field. We hope you’ll check back often to stay current with our efforts to combat fraud, waste, and abuse in large government programs.

Buried Pentagon Report Leads to Questions for Other Government Agencies

Buried Pentagon Report Leads to Questions for Other Government Agencies

Earlier this year, four government agencies – Commerce, Health and Human Services, Energy, and the Environmental Protection Agency—received letters from congress directing them to provide documents and comments detailing their efforts to “identify waste and… to achieve budget savings in the next five years.” The letter referenced a report from the Pentagon that identified a “clear path” to saving over $125 billion over five years, which was subsequently suppressed because of the dramatic findings.

The Washington Post, which was mentioned in the letter from Congress, exposed the Pentagon’s internal study in December 2016. The Post explained the reason the Pentagon buried the study was that they feared Congress would cut their budget if they knew of the waste. Incredibly, the “clear path” to savings did not even require layoffs. Rather it would use attrition, early retirements, reductions in expensive contractors, and modern technology to streamline operations.

To put the size of the problem in perspective, the study showed that the defense department paid over 1 million back-office staff to support 1.3 million active duty troops (the smallest number of troops since 1940). Thanks to these large numbers, the savings from streamlining could have led to reallocating up to $125 billion for troops and weapons and rebuilding the nation’s aging nuclear arsenal. But apparently, some Pentagon officials decided that protecting against budget cuts was more important.

The four agencies who received the letter from Congress have until March 10th to respond. Their response must provide a copy of their internal reports similar to the Pentagon report, lessons learned for their department if they do not have a similar report, and any efforts the department has made to combat waste. Given that these four agency budgets total over $1 trillion, twice that of the Department of Defense, there should be ample opportunities for savings.
The Case of Tom Brady’s Stolen Jersey

The Case of Tom Brady’s Stolen Jersey

Shortly after Tom Brady led the New England Patriots to the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history, he noticed that his game jersey had been stolen from his bag. Asked if it was still missing hours later, he responded "Yeah, it's going to be on eBay at some point."

This got me thinking about the market for high profile stolen items like sports memorabilia and famous artwork (yes, Pondera people think a little differently than the average sports fan). How, after all, could someone hope to profit from selling such a famous jersey—certainly not by selling it on eBay.

As it turns out, the markets for stolen items like sports memorabilia and artwork are quite mature and well-defined. Stolen art obviously has a longer history and much can be learned from it. For example, pricing for stolen art is typically around 10% of the estimated value. Interestingly, this means that many of the most famous paintings are less likely to be stolen because even 10% of $100 million is a lot to pay for an item that you can’t even show to friends!

While there are notable exceptions, including the 1911 theft of Da Vinci’s Mona Lisa (recovered two years later), the large majority of art thefts are of less than $10,000 items from private homes. The items are often sold after a period of time to legitimate galleries by “owners” who claim to have inherited them. Most estimates state that only about 5% of art thefts are ever truly solved. A recent seizure of famous Dutch art on the Ukrainian black market, for example, focused on recovery versus deciphering the 10 year “chain of custody” since being stolen.

Back to Tom Brady’s jersey. While not as expensive as a famous painting, many experts estimate its value at around $500,000. This would translate to a $50,000 value on the black market. And because it is such a famous item, it certainly wouldn’t be wise to display it openly.
While $50,000 is a great deal of money, I’m not sure many of us would take the risk of avoiding the Texas Rangers for that payday.

For those who need more impetus to stay on the straight and narrow, remember that O.J. Simpson’s 33-year prison sentence stemmed from a Las Vegas robbery over sports memorabilia that he claimed was stolen from him. And while Tom Brady’s 5th Super Bowl win is sure to ease the pain of his stolen jersey, I’ll still be rooting for the Texas Rangers and Houston P.D. in their efforts to recover this important piece of sports history.

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Pondera leverages advanced prediction algorithms and the power of cloud computing to combat fraud, waste, and abuse in government programs.



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